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Thursday, April 17, 2008

GOP VP Sweepstakes - UPDATE

After John McCain wrapped up the Republican presidential nomination I penned a lengthy post on potential vice presidential candidates. This choice is especially important for McCain both because of his age and because he has taken positions over the years that resulted in lukewarm support from the base of his party. There hasn't been a lot of new information to help predict McCain's choice, but here are a couple things to consider:

Condoleeza Rice - Secretary of State (53). Made a pretty definitive Sherman-style statement:
"I do not want to be, don't intend to be, won't be on his ticket," she told the Associated Press.
I only had Rice as one percent chance of being the running mate and will leave it at 1% only because if the phone rings you have to answer.

Mark Sanford - South Carolina Governor (48). David Freddoso of NRO reports McCain is holding a grudge against Sanford for not endorsing him in the South Carolina primary. I had Sanford as a 30% chance of selection which in retrospect was probably too high. Make him a 15% chance at this point.


Sarah Palin - Alaskan Governor (44). Since the original post, we have gotten news that Gov. Palin is pregnant and will deliver her and her husband's fifth child in May. Some argue this completely takes her off the list. I disagree. Sen. Obama is closing in on the Dem nomination and if he chooses a running mate other than Sen. Clinton and female running mate for McCain would be a way to attract voters who are not hardcore Dems but were just excited at the prospect of electing a female to national office. I'll raise her chances to 15%.

Jodi Rell - Connecticut Governor (62) - I somehow neglected to list Governor Rell in my original post. Positives: Rell seems to have cleaned up Connecticut after replacing former Gov, John Rowland who resigned amidst some personal scandals. Would be able to relate to McCain having grown up in a Navy town (Norfolk, Virginia) and dropping out of college to marry a Navy pilot. She is about as conservative as you're going to find in the New England area. Negatives: Very limited experience and name recognition. Also, adding a grandmother to the ticket wouldn't do much to off set McCain's image as too darn old. Chances: 3%.

I'm not ready to raise his chances yet, but former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney has been making speeches on McCain's behalf and the two have seemed awfully friendly when together. Romney's biggest problem is the hardcore conservatives who are leery of McCain are equally or more so concerned about Romney's positions on key issues. BizzyBlogger, an influential Ohio blogger, has a series of posts explaining why he finds Romney unfit.

4 Comments:

Blogger Ben said...

No chance for Rell. She signed a gay union bill into law and is pro-abortion.

Not even McCain would pick her.

April 17, 2008 at 3:36 PM

 
Blogger LargeBill said...

Ben,

I only gave her a 3% chance. Her odds are in Ron Paul territory.

April 17, 2008 at 6:41 PM

 
Blogger Ben said...

I would say just about anyone has a better chance of being the VP than Paul. Even Clinton or Obama would be a wiser pick for McCain

April 22, 2008 at 1:39 PM

 
Blogger LargeBill said...

Ron Paul wouldn't be my pick and he has no chance, but he is NOT worse than Clinton or Obama. There may be Democrats better that Paul (Liebermann) but those two aren't on that list. Paul is at least pro-life and he would likely be so far out there that he would lead to greater gridlock. While it has a bad reputation, gridlock (doing nothing) is better than most of the stuff DC gets done.

April 22, 2008 at 1:50 PM

 

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