Election Predictions

Lots of election predictions out today. Here are links to a few:

We have the wildly optimistic from Kathleen Lopez of NRO. She sees Republicans picking up 80 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate including the California seat currently held by Maam Boxer.

We have very detailed predictions from Jim Geraghty. He predicts every House race and every contested Senate seat.

Winners and Losers is a collection of predictions from various experts at a NRO Symposium.

Don Surber toyed with the idea of doubling his months old prediction of 51 House and 5 Senate seat gains for Republicans. While noting some numbers that could lead to the double down, he stuck with his original prediction to avoid any chance of disappointment tonight. His 51 and 5 are the bare minimum gains I could see for the Republicans.

For laughs, here is a link to Meghan McCain's predictions. They are predictably nonsensical. She only predicts five races and my guess is she gets all five wrong. Particularly amusing is her idea that Gov. Charlie Crist will win the Florida senate seat. He'll be lucky to avoid third place after the silliness of the past week where he and Bill Clinton tried to push the Dem nominee to drop out of the race. This race will be called for Marco Rubio within minutes of the polls closing.

My own predictions: In Ohio, Rob Portman will win the senate seat easily. In the governor race Kasich will win, but won't be outside the margin of fraud/recount shenanigans. Strickland's ads have been effective both in painting Kasich as a Wall Street big wig and as being anti-gun rights. My congressman, John Boehner will win easily and will be the next Speaker of the House as the Republicans gain 60+ seats. I don't see the Republicans getting a majority in the Senate. It will be close, but I don't trust California voters doing the right thing and kicking Boxer to the curb. A side note to that prediction is the Democrats actually have a lot more Senate seats to defend in 2012. At least two senate races will go into a protracted recount process. There will be at least five long term incumbent congressmen who were perceived safe that will get beaten. Let's hope Barney Frank is one of them.

Tonight's drinking game? If watching MSNBC drink every time a host cries or says the word disaster. If watching FOX drink every time they say historic, unprecedented, or better than expected.

Someone Needs to Ask Gingrich, Boehner Among Others About This News

Newt Gingrich and other Republicans who supported Scozzafava need to explain how the person they characterized as a loyal Republican did this:

SCOZZAFAVA THROWS SUPPORT TO OWENS

It was obvious to many of us that if elected Scozzafava would have voted with Pelosi more often that not and likely would have pulled a Specter and switched to Democrat. This race is exhibit one for why you should never give to the RNC, NRSC or the NRCC. Pick and contribute candidates who will most closely match your political views individually.

Is the NY-23 Race a National Dividing Line Between Conservatives and Republicans?

Earlier this year, President Obama appointed Rep. John McHugh (R-NY-23) to serve as Secretary of the Army setting up a special election. Normally, these special elections to fill a congressional seat don't send any national signals. This race is different for a few reasons.
1. While New York is rightfully considered a very liberal state there are pockets of conservatives once you get away from the major cities and New York's 23rd district is one such area.
2. People don't normally watch congressional races outside of their geographical area, but with few other races a minor race gets much more attention.
3. Another factor is growing dissatisfaction among conservative Republicans with the decisions made at the national level over whom to back. Often the NRC, NRSC, and NRCC seem to back the candidate least likely to support the party platform out of a mistaken belief that conservatism can't win in some states. The decision of the NRSC and President Bush to support liberals such as Sen. Chafee and Specter among others led many conservative to vow never to donate to the Republicans on the national level out of a sense that the money will be misspent.
4. The biggest reason this race is getting national attention from conservatives the local GOP nominated a very liberal candidate, Dede Scozzafava, for this seat. This isn't the case of a candidate who is fiscally conservative but socially liberal (in other words pro-abortion) or vice versa. This candidate is very liberal all the way around.

Fortunately there is a conservative option in this race. A conservative Republican who shares our values, Doug Hoffman is running in this race. Unfortunately, there was no primary election held so Mr. Hoffman is forced to run as a third party candidate under the Conservative Party label.

That is how this race became a showdown for Republicans between those who think it is important to stand for certain beliefs and values and the long time Washington Republicans who think all that matters is the party label someone carries after their name.

Not surprisingly, the list of Republicans breaking ranks to support Hoffman are ones with strongly held conservative beliefs. Fred Thompson recorded an audio blog post titled: "Vote for Principles not Parties" explaining his position on this race. Other notable Republicans who are backing Hoffman include Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, Steve Forbes, Dick Armey, and Some supporting the liberal candidate, Scozzafava, include several labor unions, Newt Gingrich, Pete King, and most disappointingly my own congressman Rep. John Boehner (OH-8). As Fred Thompson said principles are more important than parties. In future primaries we need to remember the principles of those who weighed in on this race (and the cowardice of those who took no position).

As a side note, I did contact Rep. Boehner's office and they somehow insist that Scozzafava is the conservative choice.

What is Cap and Trade?

There has been a lot of internet chatter over this weekend about Cap and Trade. Friday night the House of Representatives voted 219-212 in favor of Cap and Trade legislation. What is Cap and Trade? What did they vote to do? Why was there such a rush to pass this legislation that they could not even wait for it to be read and understood before voting? What's next?

Well, starting with the legislation, the only accurate description of the bill I've found comes from our congressman, Rep. John Boehner (R-OH-18): "Hey, people deserve to know what's in this pile of s--t." Okay, Boehner assessment may be accurate, but I'll admit it is not a very informative description.

So, what is Cap and Trade supposed to be? The general idea is some naive people have bought into the ridiculous idea of Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) and think we need to take drastic action to save the planet. With that in mind, proponents of the theory of AGW want to Cap greenhouse emissions and then there will be trading of allowances to exceed the Cap. In other words, companies that generate emissions (that is any company that creates stuff) will be charged a fee. Call the fee whatever you want, but bottom line is it is a massive tax on productivity. The obvious impact will be felt by consumers of the power companies. Basically, since the cost of these fees will be passed on to consumers, this is a massive tax on every American. Amazingly, there are people who actually believed the snake oil salesman from Chicago when he said no one making less than $250,000 will see a tax increase. Fools!

The question concerning the rush to pass this legislation is the easiest to answer. Whenever Congress says they need to rush something through without debate and without even reading the legislation then you know congressional "leadership" realize the proposed legislation would not survive full examination. Consider the pork laden "stimulus" bill from a few months ago.

What's next? The bill goes to the senate for consideration and if it passes the senate then to the president for signature or veto. There is no doubt that the current president is a an adherent of the religion of global warming so he will sign the bill if it makes it to his desk. So, if we are concerned about our countries future we need to attempt to influence enough senators to vote against Cap and Trade. Also, since even if this bill dies in the senate we will see more attempts to push this in the future we should continue to pressure members of the House of Representatives. I know my congressman (Boehner) isn't an idiot. How about your congressman? Give your congressman a call. Their staffs keep track of public sentiment on contentious issues and fear of losing votes can influence their position.

Election Endorsement - Ohio 8th District

I endorse incumbent Rep. John Boehner to remain as our U.S. Representative from Ohio's 8th District. This one won't even be close. I haven't even heard who is running against Boehner. Wouldn't matter anyways since Boehner represents the interests and values of our district. He's is a good man leading an unfortunately shrinking minority party in Congress.