Keane observations about life, politics and sports.

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Election Predictions

Lots of election predictions out today. Here are links to a few:

We have the wildly optimistic from Kathleen Lopez of NRO. She sees Republicans picking up 80 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate including the California seat currently held by Maam Boxer.

We have very detailed predictions from Jim Geraghty. He predicts every House race and every contested Senate seat.

Winners and Losers is a collection of predictions from various experts at a NRO Symposium.

Don Surber toyed with the idea of doubling his months old prediction of 51 House and 5 Senate seat gains for Republicans. While noting some numbers that could lead to the double down, he stuck with his original prediction to avoid any chance of disappointment tonight. His 51 and 5 are the bare minimum gains I could see for the Republicans.

For laughs, here is a link to Meghan McCain's predictions. They are predictably nonsensical. She only predicts five races and my guess is she gets all five wrong. Particularly amusing is her idea that Gov. Charlie Crist will win the Florida senate seat. He'll be lucky to avoid third place after the silliness of the past week where he and Bill Clinton tried to push the Dem nominee to drop out of the race. This race will be called for Marco Rubio within minutes of the polls closing.

My own predictions: In Ohio, Rob Portman will win the senate seat easily. In the governor race Kasich will win, but won't be outside the margin of fraud/recount shenanigans. Strickland's ads have been effective both in painting Kasich as a Wall Street big wig and as being anti-gun rights. My congressman, John Boehner will win easily and will be the next Speaker of the House as the Republicans gain 60+ seats. I don't see the Republicans getting a majority in the Senate. It will be close, but I don't trust California voters doing the right thing and kicking Boxer to the curb. A side note to that prediction is the Democrats actually have a lot more Senate seats to defend in 2012. At least two senate races will go into a protracted recount process. There will be at least five long term incumbent congressmen who were perceived safe that will get beaten. Let's hope Barney Frank is one of them.

Tonight's drinking game? If watching MSNBC drink every time a host cries or says the word disaster. If watching FOX drink every time they say historic, unprecedented, or better than expected.

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