Election Predictions

Lots of election predictions out today. Here are links to a few:

We have the wildly optimistic from Kathleen Lopez of NRO. She sees Republicans picking up 80 seats in the House and 9 in the Senate including the California seat currently held by Maam Boxer.

We have very detailed predictions from Jim Geraghty. He predicts every House race and every contested Senate seat.

Winners and Losers is a collection of predictions from various experts at a NRO Symposium.

Don Surber toyed with the idea of doubling his months old prediction of 51 House and 5 Senate seat gains for Republicans. While noting some numbers that could lead to the double down, he stuck with his original prediction to avoid any chance of disappointment tonight. His 51 and 5 are the bare minimum gains I could see for the Republicans.

For laughs, here is a link to Meghan McCain's predictions. They are predictably nonsensical. She only predicts five races and my guess is she gets all five wrong. Particularly amusing is her idea that Gov. Charlie Crist will win the Florida senate seat. He'll be lucky to avoid third place after the silliness of the past week where he and Bill Clinton tried to push the Dem nominee to drop out of the race. This race will be called for Marco Rubio within minutes of the polls closing.

My own predictions: In Ohio, Rob Portman will win the senate seat easily. In the governor race Kasich will win, but won't be outside the margin of fraud/recount shenanigans. Strickland's ads have been effective both in painting Kasich as a Wall Street big wig and as being anti-gun rights. My congressman, John Boehner will win easily and will be the next Speaker of the House as the Republicans gain 60+ seats. I don't see the Republicans getting a majority in the Senate. It will be close, but I don't trust California voters doing the right thing and kicking Boxer to the curb. A side note to that prediction is the Democrats actually have a lot more Senate seats to defend in 2012. At least two senate races will go into a protracted recount process. There will be at least five long term incumbent congressmen who were perceived safe that will get beaten. Let's hope Barney Frank is one of them.

Tonight's drinking game? If watching MSNBC drink every time a host cries or says the word disaster. If watching FOX drink every time they say historic, unprecedented, or better than expected.

Random Thoughts and Links

It is funny how the meaning of words change over time. Take the word "extremist." Lately, I've heard that people who think that those entering our country should do so legally are "extremists." Sorry, but no that is perfectly reasonable position to take.

If you want a valid example of extremists consider this article.

The Braves have scored 13 runs during their current 8 game losing streak. Suddenly, the Indians offense is not quite as awful as I thought, comparatively.

Considering the lunacy of some on the left side of the political spectrum people say Democrats aren't playing with a full deck of cards. Recently, it seems they are down to just one card - the "Race Card." The latest example of this propensity to make everything about race (especially when losing the underlying argument) is from New York:

It started as an angry blow-up, and then it escalated. A state senator with a history of anger management issues says his race-based rant was part of his fight against the "evil of white supremacy."

Brooklyn State Senator Kevin Parker is a well-documented hothead, and on Wednesday he took to the airwaves to unapologetically defend his latest shouting match.

"It's par for the course for what we have to do in Albany – fighting the forces of evil," Senator Parker said. Parker shockingly identified the "enemies" he's fighting as other senators. "These long-term, white supremacist, you know, Republican senators," he said.

That followed a free-for-all shouting match in Albany Tuesday where Parker heatedly objected to the questions asked by a white senator, John DeFrancisco of Syracuse, of a black nominee to the New York State Power Authority.

"John, you are totally out of order, you are out of order," Parker shouted. "How dare you? You racist people in here."

Like the Boy Who Cried Wolf, crying racism when inappropriate will in time mean the cry will be ignore when it is appropriate. People of Parker's ilk are actually hurting legitimate victims of racism.

I misread the political tea leaves after Scott Brown was elected U.S. Senator from Massachusetts. I wrongly assumed President Obama and the Democrats in control of Congress would temper their drive to re-make this country out of fear of the November elections. Instead, Brown's victory and ugly polling numbers have spurred the Democrats to double down their bets and ramp up efforts to weaken this country through health care "reform," the Cap and Trade global warming tax scam, and a renewed push for amnesty for illegal immigrants. Instead of fearing loss of their jobs they are assuming massive losses and rushing to get unpopular legislation passed before they lose control. Best proof that they are anticipating massive losses in November? They already voted for no congressional pay raise for the next congress.

In the Florida Republican primary pitting Gov. Charlie Crist against state Sen. Marco Rubio people have been focusing on whether the faltering governor will drop out of the primary and run as an independent. What people are not discussing much is why did the national Republican party establishment back Crist in the primary? I have no problem with big names within the party endorsing a candidate in a primary. However, I have a major problem with the RNC, RSCC or RCCC financially backing a candidate in a primary. Save that money for the general election. Additionally, in recent years the Washington establishment Republicans have leaned towards picking candidates based on their perceived electability rather than because the candidate shares our conservative ideals. A great example is Lincoln Chafee. How'd he work out for us?

Speaking of the Florida primary and the news that Crist is going to run as an independent, there is something wrong about that process. I think you should not be able to run as an independent in the same election cycle where you competed for a party's nomination.

Am I the only one who wasn't thrilled with the NFL draft starting on prime time on a weeknight and being dragged out over three days?